Millisecond response target
Shorten the critical processing path for the ever-changing market and allow important changes to enter decision-making horizons faster.
02PREDICTION MARKETS
Prediction Market TradingUnderstand events and probabilities,Look for opportunities worth investigating.
Start with the event definition, determination source and settlement time, and then compare the implied probability, order depth and cost. Cross-platform spreads, address following or market making ideas must go through contract matching and risk inspection.
Event contract researchHandicap and Probabilitysettlement risk
NORA / PREDICTION MARKETSScenario demonstration
EVENT / PROBABILITY
Understand events and understand market pricing.
Event rules → Probability changes → Trading judgment
STEP 01 / event definitionevent rules
Confirm settlement basis and time
EVENT MARKETS / WHY IT MATTERS
In prediction markets, advantage comes from understanding the contract, not just guessing the outcome.
The same event may have similar titles but different actual settlement conditions, time zones, and result sets. The price seems to represent probability, but whether the transaction can actually be completed depends on the depth of the market, fees, remaining time and dispute risk.
CORE ADVANTAGE / 01
Read the rules first
Standardize event definitions, judgment sources and settlement times to avoid mistaking different contracts for the same opportunity.
Each advantage corresponds to clear usage scenarios, inspection conditions and risk boundaries.
IN PRACTICE / a specific question
If there is a price difference between similar events on two platforms, is this arbitrage?
Let the opportunity go through contract matching and execution verification before entering into strategic judgment.
- 01Confirm that events, results, time zones and invalid market rules are consistent
- 02Take into account the tradable volume, fees and potential partial trades on both sides
- 03If the transaction or settlement caliber of a single leg is different, it will be directly marked as directional risk.
PREDICTION MARKET WORKFLOW / HOW IT WORKS
From an event to a well-founded trading judgment.
The key to prediction market trading is not just looking at prices, but also looking at event definition, market opening and settlement.
NORA / WORKFLOW 01 / 03
YOUR NEXT STEP
Let’s first look at market rules and settlement sources.
Different contracts on the same subject may adopt different deadlines and criteria.
Confirm events and results
Check deadline
View billing basis
Scenario demonstration · Subject to actual account and product configuration Understand the entrance
ENGINEERED FOR SPEEDAimed at millisecond response.
Aimed at millisecond response.
Make every critical moment one step ahead.
Events change quickly, and handicap judgments must be timely. It is updated hierarchically by event, contract and market. First confirm the settlement caliber and tradable price, and then evaluate whether the signal is still valid.
Efficient layered architecture
Data, AI, strategy, risk control and execution each perform their own duties, complex tasks are processed in parallel, and abnormal links are clear and can be located.
High concurrency performance design
Use queues, throttling, and real-time monitoring to handle high-frequency updates and traffic peaks to keep the experience smooth.
Security in depth
Minimal privileges, sensitive information protection, operational auditing and exception suspension are implemented throughout critical links.
HOW THE SYSTEM RESPONDS
The speed is felt and the process is visible.
With millisecond-level response as the design goal, the critical path of data access, signal processing and risk verification is optimized; each processing node retains status to facilitate locating delays and anomalies.
Quick decision link / SYSTEMStatus can be checked
01data access
02AI-assisted recognition
03Quantitative rules
04risk gateway
05status feedback
Each step retains time and processing status, making it easy to identify where delays occur.
Optimize critical links with millisecond-level response as the goal, and continuously test latency, stability, and security performance through monitoring, stress testing, and auditing. Specific indicators are based on the actual operating environment and public measurement caliber.
01 / CAPABILITIESWHAT IT DOES
From research to decision-making, everything is explained clearly.
Organize core capabilities around actual decision-making links so that information, strategies and risk judgments have their own basis.
contract standardization
Record event definitions, time zones, deadlines, and judgment sources item by item so that markets with similar titles can be accurately distinguished.
Order Book Watch
Analyze the price based on the buying and selling quotation, tradable depth, fees and queuing conditions to avoid taking the bid price as the transaction price.
Portfolio risk control
The same theme, interrelated results and expiry dates are combined to calculate the risk exposure.
02 / STRATEGIESRESEARCH LIBRARY
Strategic direction and failure boundaries.
Each direction requires verification of data, tradable prices, and exit conditions. Understand applicable conditions, transaction costs, and failure boundaries through specific strategy scenarios.
address following
Study the positions and transactions of public addresses, and only consider copying when price, time and risk conditions permit.
need attentionThe historical performance of public wallets does not prove future advantages.
window momentum
Observe the probability changes and handicap reactions in a short period of time.
need attentionDelays, price jumps and insufficient time remaining can eat up theoretical opportunities.
synonymous contract spread
Compare cross-market contracts with consistent event definitions and settlement criteria.
need attentionSimilar titles do not equal the same risk, and untraded single legs are still exposed.
Mutually exclusive result combinations
Verify whether the results are mutually exclusive and exhaustive, and then calculate the combined cost.
need attentionResult aggregation errors or settlement disputes can disrupt portfolio relationships.
Bid-ask spread observation
Evaluate pending order spreads, queue positions and deal probabilities.
need attentionPending orders may not be filled, or they may be filled passively after information impact.
Closer to Settlement Observation
Track and determine progress, remaining time and price convergence.
need attentionHigh probability outcomes are also affected by tail events and settlement interpretations.
Handicap imbalance
At the same time, observe the depth, order cancellation and true transaction direction.
need attentionInstantaneous listings on the wall may be quickly revoked.
Bilateral quotation
Design inventory caps, quote offsets and order cancellation rules.
need attentionUnilateral fluctuations will cause inventory concentration and exit liquidity may be insufficient.
RESEARCH STANDARD
Prediction Market Trading, how are the advantages proven?
Product capabilities need to be supported by a transparent verification process. We will test the effect according to the market characteristics of this product line, rather than just showing a beautiful revenue picture.
Event definition review
Check the result caliber, time zone, settlement source and invalid market rules one by one.
Handicap tradability
Replay the historical order book, taking into account bid-ask spread, depth, fees and remaining time.
Probability calibration
Compare predicted probabilities to outcome frequencies and observe calibration deviations for different event classes.
RESEARCH / VALIDATIONPrediction Market Trading
Prediction Market Trading
What proves that the strategy works?
From data to conclusions, the research caliber is disclosed layer by layer. Shown here is the backtesting workflow; the interpretation of results also focuses on retracements, costs and sample intervals.
VALIDATION DESK / 01 Process display
STEP 01 / Samples and Sources
historical data
Check markets, trading pairs, start and end dates, timestamps, and missing data. Let the research object be clearly defined first.
Public data sources and cleaning methods
Label training and tuning out-of-sample intervals
Save a reviewable version of your policy
READ THE FULL PICTURE
When evaluating strategy performance, please pay attention to the sample range, transaction costs, maximum drawdown and out-of-sample results; the complete caliber can better illustrate the quality of the strategy than a single return number.
OWNERSHIP
Research, engineering and risk control work together to build quantitative capabilities.
From strategy research, AI data to transaction engineering and risk operations, four types of professional capabilities jointly support the continuous iteration of products.
quantitative research
Define strategy assumptions, verification methods, backtest calibers and failure conditions.
AI and data engineering
Responsible for data quality, model evaluation, feature management and drift monitoring.
Trading system engineering
Responsible for market conditions, order status, connection stability and fault recovery.
Risk and Operations
Define permission boundaries, exception handling, information disclosure and user support processes.
04 / RISKCONTROL BY DESIGN
Risk boundaries are written before the strategy.
Both quantification and follow-up may lead to losses. The following check items are used to illustrate the direction of risk control in product design.
01
Contractual consistency
Events, results, time zones and billing sources need to be aligned on an item-by-item basis.
02
Tradability
Factor in fees, slippage, depth and partial fills.
03
Probability calibration
Distinguish between market-implied probabilities and model estimates.
04
Fund occupation
Consider settlement delays, maturity distribution and portfolio concentration.
Safe use tips
Follow the principle of least privilege when connecting accounts, keep API keys, private keys and mnemonics properly, and check the authorization scope regularly.
05 / QUESTIONSGOOD TO KNOW
FAQ
Before officially using the product, understand the capabilities, limitations, and risks.
For supported prediction markets, account connection methods and available functions, please refer to the in-product display and official instructions.
READY TO EXPLORE
put Prediction Market Trading Put it into your workflow.
First understand the applicable scenarios and risk boundaries, and then start using Nora from the official entrance; if you need team access, you can contact the cooperation team.